Coronavirus COVID19 mortality to reach 780000 deaths
What is a standardized mortality unit (SMU)?
The standardized mortality unit SMU is a term
introduced by the Global Health 2035. A value of 1 SMU means that 0.01 % of the
global population has died because of that given pandemic.
The SMU is a value to
define and evaluate the severity of a pandemic. Pandemics with a mortality severity
higher than 10 SMU are considered as severe pandemics. When the mortality is between
1-10 the pandemic is considered as moderately severe.
What is the mortality severity of COVID19?
In the present case,
the estimated global population is about 7,800,000,000 people. Considering the total
deaths related to COVID19 (747 330 deaths, August 13, 2020) and the daily mortality (about
5 000 dead per day), Coronavirus COVID19 is likely to reach the 780 000 deaths
threshold by August 20, 2020.
The figure shows a comparison
of the mortality severity of COVID19 and other recent pandemics outbreaks.
The Spanish Flu is
clearly the worst case. The Spanish Flu is considered as an outlier caused by
unusual circumstances, including the co-occurrence of World War I. A study from
Madhay (2013) suggests that a biological replica of the 1918 influenza pandemic
would result in lower mortality rates than those that occurred in 1918.
It is important to
note that although COVID19 has a lower mortality severity, its social and
economical severity are as high as previous pandemics (or even worse).
It is important to
note that in this post we are considering only outbreak pandemics related to
respiratory viral. AIDS it is also a pandemic. About 33 Million people have died from AIDS-related illnesses since the start of the epidemic.
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