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Coronavirus COVID19 mortality to reach 780000 deaths

 Coronavirus COVID19 is about to reach 780 000 deaths marks, hence reaching a pandemic severity of one (1) standardized mortality unit (SMU).
Pandemics mortality coronavirus

What is a standardized mortality unit (SMU)?

The standardized mortality unit SMU is a term introduced by the Global Health 2035. A value of 1 SMU means that 0.01 % of the global population has died because of that given pandemic.

The SMU is a value to define and evaluate the severity of a pandemic. Pandemics with a mortality severity higher than 10 SMU are considered as severe pandemics. When the mortality is between 1-10 the pandemic is considered as moderately severe.

What is the mortality severity of COVID19?

In the present case, the estimated global population is about 7,800,000,000 people. Considering the total deaths related to COVID19 (747 330 deaths, August 13, 2020) and the daily mortality (about 5 000 dead per day), Coronavirus COVID19 is likely to reach the 780 000 deaths threshold by August 20, 2020.

The figure shows a comparison of the mortality severity of COVID19 and other recent pandemics outbreaks.

Pandemic mortality severity

The Spanish Flu is clearly the worst case. The Spanish Flu is considered as an outlier caused by unusual circumstances, including the co-occurrence of World War I. A study from Madhay (2013) suggests that a biological replica of the 1918 influenza pandemic would result in lower mortality rates than those that occurred in 1918.

It is important to note that although COVID19 has a lower mortality severity, its social and economical severity are as high as previous pandemics (or even worse).

It is important to note that in this post we are considering only outbreak pandemics related to respiratory viral. AIDS it is also a pandemic. About 33 Million people have died from AIDS-related illnesses since the start of the epidemic.

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